Peterson Institute for International Economics Update Newsletter
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PIIE Update Newsletter
October 30, 2013

"Washington's premier think tank on the global economy"
—The Washington Post
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LIVE WEBCASTS
 
  Keeping Cyclical Unemployment from Becoming Structural Inequality
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
12:30–2:00 pm pm (EST)
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  At a time of mounting worldwide concern about economic inequality, the Peterson Institute will hold a session on the challenges to labor markets in the United States and around the globe posed by the Great Recession. David Blanchflower will compare the UK and US experiences in creating jobs and confronting structural unemployment; Tomas Hellebrandt will present important new findings showing how the recent downturn and resulting rise in joblessness have affected income inequality; and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard will discuss how labor market reforms in Germany increased employment and labor force participation without adverse inequality effects.

  Abenomics: From Macroeconomic to Structural Reform
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
9:00 am–2:00 pm (EST)
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  The Peterson Institute and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation–USA will jointly hold a high-level conference on the dramatic changes under way in Japanese economic policy. Jerald Schiff, deputy director of the Asia-Pacific Department at the International Monetary Fund, and Adam S. Posen, PIIE president, will open with a discussion of how Prime Minister Shinzo Abe can shift from fiscal to structural reform priorities. Acting Deputy US Trade Representative Wendy Cutler, Yorizumi Watanabe of Keio University, and Jeffrey J. Schott of the Peterson Institute, will discuss how the Abenomics' trade agenda and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) may advance Japanese productivity. Norihiko Ishiguro, Vice-Minister for International Affairs at Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), will deliver a keynote address on the government's agenda.
FEATURED
 
  Policy Brief 13-26
Financial Services in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
[pdf]

Simon Johnson and Jeffrey J. Schott
   
  Simon Johnson Jeffrey J. Schott Negotiations aimed at producing a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) are expected to include an agreement on harmonizing financial service regulations in Europe and the United States. But concerns have arisen about how a future agreement could affect the still unsettled European financial reforms and the introduction of new US rules pursuant to the Dodd-Frank legislation and other potential initiatives. The authors believe that the TTIP can make regulatory policies more transparent and create opportunities for trade and investment in financial services in both markets. But they caution against creating international frameworks that could constrain the ability of US and European financial regulators to safeguard their own financial systems from future crises.

>> Read full policy brief [pdf]

  Policy Brief 13-27
US Employment Deindustrialization: Insights from History and the International Experience
[pdf]

Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards
   
  Robert Z. Lawrence The sharp decline in manufacturing employment in the United States over the last decade is often attributed to the dramatic increase in imports from emerging-market economies, especially China. The authors argue, however, that a far more important explanation for the decline lies in powerful forces affecting all advanced economies, especially the rapid productivity growth in manufacturing that has kept output high with ever fewer jobs. In addition, they note Americans buy fewer manufactured goods today than in the past. A vigorous US and global economic recovery could boost US manufacturing employment in the short run. Over the long run, however, absent new product innovations, or a shift in consumer preferences, the basic forces leading to declining manufacturing employment are unlikely to abate.

>> Read full policy brief [pdf]

  Working Paper 13-9
Asian and European Financial Crises Compared
[pdf]

Edwin M. Truman
   
  Edwin M. Truman The origins of the European and Asian financial crises were broadly similar, but the evolution of the two sets of crises exhibited many significant differences. The European crisis countries received more external financial support, despite the fact that their problems resulted more from solvency issues, while the Asian crises involved more liquidity issues. On balance, the reform programs undertaken by European crisis economies were less demanding and rigorous than those in the Asian economics. Partly as a consequence, the negative impacts on the global economy of the European crisis have been larger than those in Asia. Among the lessons to be drawn is that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other countries were mistaken in treating the European situation as a set of individual country crises rather than as a crisis for the euro area as a whole.

>> Read full working paper [pdf]

  Speech
NAFTA and the North American Future
[pdf]

Robert B. Zoellick
   
  Robert B. Zoellick North America has the potential to be a strong and unique continent—comprising two developed countries and a rising developing country—in a changing world economy. The global importance of the United States, Canada, and Mexico results from several factors, including an increasingly integrated market of almost 500 million people, energy self-sufficiency and exports, a cohesive infrastructure network, and complementary manufacturing and service industries. They also share the goal of improving their educational systems by emphasizing workforce skills and aligning immigration policies. With a common outlook on security and foreign policy interests, North America can better compete with 1.3 billion Chinese and other economic powerhouses around the world.

>> Read full speech [pdf]

  Op-ed
What Saved the Rupee?

Arvind Subramanian
Op-ed in the Business Standard, New Delhi
   
  Arvind Subramanian The near-crisis in the Indian economy this year, marked by a sharp decline in the value of the rupee, offers two strong lessons: Half-hearted and partial policy tightening in defense of the Indian currency was an unmitigated failure, and a very peculiar Indian method of sterilized intervention—which has failed in other crises and is generally proscribed—actually worked. A broader perspective suggests that the domestic angst and actions over the rupee may have been unnecessary. In the end, external events proved more important than internal actions. Welcome to the new, financially globalized Indian economy—pitfalls, risks, and all.

>> Read full op-ed

  Op-ed
The Dangers of Growing Russian Parochialism

Anders Åslund
Published in the Moscow Times
   
  Anders Aslund A country's trade policy is supposed to maximize economic growth while keeping its foreign payments in reasonable balance. In reality, such a policy might sometimes actually benefit entrenched elites at the expense of the growth and welfare of the nation. But Russia's current trade policy does neither. On the contrary, it minimizes growth and maximizes public cost. For political rather than economic reasons, the Kremlin is giving priority to the small and protectionist Customs Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Russia should utilize its membership in the World Trade Organization to boost competition in services and foreign direct investment and thus its own economic growth.

>> Read full op-ed


Peterson Perspectives Interviews

audio  A US-European Crisis Over Privacy Invasions? Part I
Nicolas Véron assesses the political and economic implications of European outrage over the United States' practice of tapping into vast amounts of communications data.

audio  A US-European Crisis Over Privacy Invasions? Part II
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard says that European outrage over US spying will affect trade negotiations and limit the ability of US internet companies to operate freely in Germany, France, and elsewhere on the continent.


Recent Blog Posts

RealTime Economic Issues Watch   China Economic Watch    North Korea:  Witness to Transformation
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The European Council's Latest Three Takeaways

An Encouraging Start to the ECB's Big Bank Review

Why the Dollar-Renminbi Transition Is Getting Much Closer Despite Debt Deal

Towards a More Perfect Union?

The ECB's New Pressure Tactics on Member States' Taxpayers
  China Rebalancing Update – Q3 2013

The Economics of Nuclear Power in China

China's Demand for Gold

A Blast from the Past on Interest Rate Liberalization

Why the Dollar-Renminbi Transition Is Getting Much Closer Despite Debt Deal
  Squaring the Circle: Economic Development and Nuclear Weapons

South Korea Blocks NKNews' KCNA Watch

Parsing the NDC Statements of June and October

Project Choco Pie

Human Rights Film Festivals in Seoul and Toronto
 
 
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