Peterson Institute for International Economics Update Newsletter
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PIIE Update Newsletter
March 26, 2013

"Washington's premier think tank on the global economy"
—The Washington Post
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FEATURED
 
  New Book
Rising Tide: Is Growth in Emerging Economies Good for the United States?

Lawrence Edwards and Robert Z. Lawrence
   
  Rising Tide: Is Growth in Emerging Economies Good for the United States? US international economic policy since World War II has been based on the premise that foreign economic growth is in America's economic, as well as political and security, self-interest. The bursting of the speculative dot.com bubble, slowing US growth, and the global financial crisis and its aftermath, however, have led to radical changes in Americans' perceptions of the benefits of global trade. In this study, Lawrence Edwards and Robert Z. Lawrence show that most fears that trade with emerging-market economies is detrimental to American welfare, wage equality, and job security are unfounded or vastly exaggerated. They find considerable evidence that adjusting to foreign economic growth is no more challenging than domestic development. Manufacturing employment in particular has been essentially unaffected by trade with emerging markets, instead driven by technology growth in emerging-market economies is truly in America's economic interest.

>> Preview and purchase book online
>> See also release event

  Policy Brief 13-7
The Congress Should Support IMF Governance Reform to Help Stabilize the World Economy
[pdf]

Edwin M. Truman
   
  Edwin M. Truman The International Monetary Fund (IMF) continues to play an indispensable role in stabilizing the world economy and financial system, but it will need assistance (particularly from the US Congress) if it is to continue to help troubled and strong countries alike. US leadership has been crucial in promoting past reform of the IMF. Legislation is now before the Congress to implement recent internationally-agreed reform agreements. That legislation will strengthen the IMF without the need to authorize one additional dime of the taxpayers' money. Failure to meet those commitments would have a large economic, financial, and political downside for the United States.

>> Read full policy brief [pdf]
 
Cyprus In Focus
Cyprus Crisis
PIIE in the News
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RealTime Economic Issues Watch
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Peterson Perspectives Interviews
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European Fumble in Cyprus?
Edwin M. Truman
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Risky Repercussions from Cyprus, Two Views:
Jacob Kirkegaard
Nicolas Véron



     
  Policy Brief 13-8
Crafting a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: What Can Be Done
[pdf]

Jeffrey J. Schott and Cathleen Cimino
   
  Jeffrey J. Schott A comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has important implications for both US-EU bilateral trade and the world trading system. If successful, it could strengthen transatlantic economic relations while also spurring trade reforms that could reinvigorate flagging multilateral trade negotiations. Both sides of the Atlantic want the TTIP to be a big deal covering all major components of the commercial relationship. They can achieve the pact's ambitious agenda by (1) broadly aligning their respective trade pacts with their existing agreements with South Korea and (2) by deepening market access commitments covering both tariff and nontariff barriers to trade in goods, agriculture, and services. Instructive KORUS and KOREU FTA precedents, however, will need to be supplemented or adjusted in three areas if the TTIP is to succeed: intellectual property issues, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and environmental resolution. In several other areas KORUS-KOREU differences should be easier to bridge, including broadly in services, investment, government procurement, and competition policies.

>> Read full policy brief [pdf]


Peterson Perspectives Interviews

audio  A 'Crisis of Stupidity' in Europe? Part II
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard says the fears of contagion from Cyprus are overblown; Nicolas Véron says it would be dangerous to minimize such fears.

audio  A 'Crisis of Stupidity' in Europe? Part I
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and Nicolas Véron assess whether a rescue package for Cyprus can be salvaged without causing panic in Europe. Part II: The regional repercussions.

audio  European Fumble in Cyprus?
Edwin M. Truman says the Europeans and the International Monetary Fund miscalculated the impact of the Cyprus bailout and must now redo the package.


Recent Blog Posts

RealTime Economic Issues Watch   China Economic Watch    North Korea:  Witness to Transformation
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Act II in Cyprus: Securing a Much Improved Deal

Europe's Cyprus Blunder and Its Consequences

Why the United Kingdom Should Adopt a Nominal GDP Target

Russia to the Rescue? Why Moscow May Bail out Cyprus

European Public Debt Swings Wildly
  China's New Populist Urbanization

Local Government Financing Vehicles Under Fire Again

Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

Show me the money: Chinese banks retain profits despite interest rate reforms

Will municipal bonds save China's urbanization plan?
  Hyeonseo Lee: North Korea Defector TED Talk

The UN Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in North Korea

The Semiotics of North Korean Propaganda III: Has Olympus Fallen?

Event: A Night of Hope: MaJoong Concert March 24th in Fairfax County, Virginia

The Foreign Trade Bank Sanctions


PIIE Noted in the News and on the Web

Bloomberg Radio
Peterson's Posen Says Cyprus Plan 'Not Sustainable'
PIIE President Adam S. Posen explains why the austerity imposed on Cyprus will require more emergency aid to keep the island nation in the euro area.

The Diane Rehm Show
Cyprus and EU Bailouts
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard joins Sheila Bair, Nicholas Karambelas, Nicholas Schrifin, and host Tom Gjelten to discuss of the state of the Cyprus bailout negotiations.

Charlie Rose Show
Update on Cyprus Crisis
Simon Johnson explains why the choices Cyprus faces are unpalatable and how going after the larger depositors will destroy Cyprus's status as an offshore banking center.

Bloomberg Surveillance
Kirkegaard Sees 'No Immediate' Cyprus Contagion
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard explains why he is confident that fears of contagion from the banking crisis in Cyprus are overblown.

PBS NewsHour
Will the Banking Crisis in Cyprus Rock Other Markets?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard explains that when a small country like Cyprus has banks worth 800 percent of GDP, then when the banks have a small problem, the government has a big one.

NPR's All Things Considered
Confidence in Cyprus Banks Falters as Government Proposes Deposit Tax
Nicolas Véron discusses how the bailout plan for Cyprus risks eroding people's confidence in the European banking system.

BNN
Cyprus Bailout Bank Account Seizures—A One Off Action, or a Template for Future Bailouts?
Shortly after the first bailout plan for Cyprus was announced, Anders Åslund says he would have preferred the plan only target accounts worth more than 100,000 euros.

The Washington Post
Robert Z. Lawrence: 'A Really Healthy U.S. Economy...Will Have a Bigger Trade Deficit.'
In this Q&A article, Robert Z. Lawrence discusses the findings of the Peterson Institute's newest book, Rising Tide: Is Growth in Emerging Economies Good for the United States?

Dow Jones
Former Fed Economist: FX Has Bigger Trade Impact Than Thought
Dow Jones highlights Joseph E. Gagnon's newest Working Paper, which explains that currency intervention has an impact on other economies several times larger than originally thought.

The New York Review of Books: Will the Chinese Be Supreme?
The New York Review of Books' spring issue identifies Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance by Arvind Subramanian as a book to help understand China's emergence as a world power.

Voice of America
Russia Re-Industrializes as Energy Boom Fades
Anders Åslund expects a substantial revival of Russian manufacturing now that oil prices seem to be leveling out and Russia's energy sector is no longer crowding out other sectors.
 
 
In This Issue
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Event
Robert Z. Lawrence Rising Tide: Is Growth in Emerging Economies Good for the United States?

Authors Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards discuss the conclusions of their latest book on how emerging-market economies affect the United States.
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