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Arvind Subramanian
Arvind Subramanian is senior fellow jointly at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Center for Global Development. His book Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance was published in September 2011, and he is coauthor of Who Needs to Open the Capital Account? (2012). Foreign Policy magazine has named him as one of the world's top 100 global thinkers in 2011.
He was assistant director in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. He served at the GATT (1988–92) during the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations and taught at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government (1999–2000) and at Johns Hopkins' School for Advanced International Studies (2008–10).
He has written on growth, trade, development, institutions, aid, oil, India, Africa, and the World Trade Organization. He has published widely in academic and other journals, including the American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Foreign Affairs, World Economy, and Economic and Political Weekly.
He has also published or been cited in leading magazines and newspapers, including the Economist, Financial Times, Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, and New York Review of Books. He contributes frequently to the Financial Times and is a columnist in India's leading financial daily, Business Standard.
He advises the Indian government in different capacities, including as a member of the Finance Minister's Expert Group on the G-20. His book India's Turn: Understanding the Economic Transformation was published in 2008 by Oxford University Press.
He obtained his undergraduate degree from St. Stephens College, Delhi; his MBA from the Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad, India; and his M.Phil and D.Phil from the University of Oxford, UK.
Blog Posts
See all posts by Arvind Subramanian:
Peterson Perspectives Interviews
- Reinhart, Rogoff, Research, and Replication
April 25, 2013
- India Rejects a Cancer Drug Patent Protection
April 4, 2013
- Doing Business in India: High Risk, High Reward
March 14, 2013
- The IMF's View of Capital Controls: A Pendulum Swing?
December 7, 2012
- Egypt's $4.8 Billion IMF Loan: Could It Affect Gaza?
November 20, 2012
- India's Latest Reforms Provoke a Backlash
September 20, 2012
- Power Blackout in India, Part II
August 3, 2012
- Power Blackout in India, Part I
August 2, 2012
- Slowdown in India: Rent-Seeking Squelches Growth
May 30, 2012
- Greece's Dilemma and Europe's Anxiety, Part II
May 17, 2012
- Greece's Dilemma and Europe's Anxiety, Part I
May 16, 2012
- China's Declining Current Account Surplus, Part III
April 4, 2012
- Can the World Bank Adjust to a Changed World?
March 29, 2012
- Have the BRICS Outlived Their Usefulness?
March 29, 2012
- China, the United States, and Europe at Cannes
November 2, 2011
- The IMF Leadership Struggle, Part Two
May 25, 2011
- Limited Expectations for Obama's Passage to India
October 26, 2010
- China Versus the World?
October 15, 2010
- A New Global Balance in the Offing?
April 21, 2010
- China: Dealing with an Insecure Juggernaut
March 24, 2010
- China vs. the Rest of the World?
February 4, 2010
- A Seminal Visit by India's Prime Minister
November 19, 2009
- A Return to Capital Controls?
October 27, 2009
- How to Revive the Global Trade Negotiations: A Debate
April 30, 2009
- A "Crisis Round" to Save the World Trading System
April 1, 2009
- Financing Woes for the Developing World
March 12, 2009
- The Perils of a "New Mercantilism"
January 14, 2009
- A Seat at the Table for Emerging Markets
November 4, 2008
- The Food Crisis and Inflation: Asian Policy Responses
May 13, 2008
Op-Eds
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India: Underperforming Even in Good Times
May 21, 2013
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Four Changes to Trade Rules to Facilitate Climate Change Action
May 4, 2013
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Reinhart-Rogoff: The Problem and Solutions
April 23, 2013
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Three New Lessons of the Euro Crisis
April 8, 2013
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This is a Golden Age of Global Growth (Yes, You Read That Right)
April 7, 2013
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US Must Learn to Live with India's Frailties
March 19, 2013
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Is India's Modi Miracle Overrated?
January 23, 2013
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Too Much Legitimacy Can Hurt Global Trade
January 13, 2013
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2013: Palaniappan Chidambaram's Year
December 26, 2012
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Role Reversal Will Slow Climate Change
November 19, 2012
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China's Currency Rises in the US Backyard
October 21, 2012
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Is India Losing Its Way?
October 18, 2012
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Where Is the Bharatiya Janata Party?
September 27, 2012
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The New Indian Politics: No Slowdown, No Panic
September 23, 2012
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India: Favoring Foreigners in Finance
August 30, 2012
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Growth and Social Outcomes in India: Part Two
July 26, 2012
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Growth and Social Outcomes in India: Part One
July 25, 2012
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The IMF Should Heed This Resignation
July 25, 2012
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In India, Not All Capital Inflows Are Welcome
June 27, 2012
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India Must Look to Its States for Salvation
June 11, 2012
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What Is India's Real Growth Potential?
May 23, 2012
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Greece's Exit May Become the Euro's Envy
May 14, 2012
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A Report Card for India's Social Sector
April 25, 2012
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China's Next Generation Should Look to Zhu
April 9, 2012
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Katherine Boo, India, and China
March 28, 2012
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Mr. Mukherjee's Grand Bargain
February 22, 2012
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Who Should Lead the World Bank?
February 17, 2012
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China and India: Right Policy, Wrong Place
January 9, 2012
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Leave China Out of a Trade Pact at Your Peril
December 8, 2011
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China a 'Precocious' Superpower?
October 26, 2011
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Coming Soon: When the Renminbi Rules the World
September 11, 2011
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Countering China's Economic Dominance
August 24, 2011
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India's Inflation Mystery
July 27, 2011
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India: Growth in the 2000s—Key Facts
June 22, 2011
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The IMF—Keynes' Non-Candidate
May 25, 2011
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Germany Owes More to Prodigal Periphery
May 25, 2011
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In Growing Chinese Dominance, a Wake-Up Call for America
April 29, 2011
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What the Prime Minister of India Can Do about Corruption
April 27, 2011
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India: Fighting Imported Corruption
March 31, 2011
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What Does the Indian Congress Party Stand For?
February 23, 2011
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Arab Spring Will Not See an Economic Boom
February 21, 2011
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Learning from Chinese Mercantilism
January 25, 2011
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Chinese Mercantilism: The Long View
January 14, 2011
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What Obama Can Offer in India
October 29, 2010
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America Cannot Win the Currency Wars Alone
October 20, 2010
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The Reserve Bank of India's Fateful, Fatal Action?
September 29, 2010
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Taxing American Competitiveness
September 15, 2010
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Assessing India's United Progressive Alliance Government
August 25, 2010
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India's Weak State Will Not Overhaul China
August 16, 2010
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India's Inflation Puzzle
July 28, 2010
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The G-20 and "Chermany"
June 23, 2010
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Asia, Europe, and the IMF
May 26, 2010
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Greek Deal Lets Banks Profit from "Immoral Hazard"
May 6, 2010
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The G-20, Power, and Ideas
April 28, 2010
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China Is the Key to Unwinding Global Imbalances
April 20, 2010
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The Weak Renminbi Is Not Just America’s Problem
March 18, 2010
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America Could Turn to India for Inspiration on Tax Reform
February 24, 2010
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Delhi's Budget Bets on Growth
February 23, 2010
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It Is the Poor Who Pay for the Weak Renminbi
February 3, 2010
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What Globalization Strategy for India?
January 27, 2010
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How Economics Managed To Make Amends
December 28, 2009
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Tax Reforms for Higher Growth
December 23, 2009
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Coordinate Capital Controls
November 25, 2009
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Forget Emissions, Focus on Research
November 17, 2009
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India: New Letter and Spirit
October 28, 2009
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The Fund Should Help Brazil To Tackle Capital Inflows
October 25, 2009
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The IMF beyond Istanbul
September 30, 2009
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The G-20: An Idea from India
August 26, 2009
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America Cannot Resolve Global Imbalances on Its Own
August 19, 2009
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Climate Change—Winning the Narrative
July 29, 2009
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China's Dollar Delusion
July 8, 2009
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Fiscal Prudence, Now and Here
June 24, 2009
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India's Goldilocks Globalization
June 15, 2009
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India: To Be or Wannabe a Superpower?
May 27, 2009
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A Grand Bargain for Better Policies in India
May 23, 2009
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Coupled Economies, Decoupled Debates
April 29, 2009
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The India Vote
April 17, 2009
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Wanted: A Truly International Monetary Fund
March 29, 2009
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The Tantalizing Promise of the Next Indian Election
March 25, 2009
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Is China Having It Both Ways?
March 25, 2009
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A Crisis Calls for a "Crisis Round"
March 24, 2009
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The Montek Monetization Moment?
February 25, 2009
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Put the Puritans in Charge of the Punchbowl
February 11, 2009
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Why this Financial Crisis Could Have Been Worse
January 29, 2009
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Policy Lessons for the Next Crisis
January 13, 2009
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The World Must Go Beyond Doha
January 6, 2009
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From Financial Folly to Trade Troubles?
December 24, 2008
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Self-insurance—The Debate India Must Have
November 26, 2008
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India and Bretton Woods II
November 13, 2008
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Hardball at Bretton Woods II
November 13, 2008
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Imbalances and Undervalued Exchange Rates: Rehabilitating Keynes
November 9, 2008
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The Credit Crunch Conundrum
November 5, 2008
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The West versus the Rest?
November 3, 2008
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Preserving "Brand India" During Financial Crisis
October 24, 2008
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Globalizing the Crisis Response
October 8, 2008
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A Master Plan for China to Bail Out America
October 7, 2008
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A Global Approach Is Needed to Beat Inflation
August 21, 2008
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The Growth Future—India and China
August 19, 2008
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The Legacy—Beyond Nukes
July 25, 2008
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The Global Food Crisis: A Toolkit for Audacious Leaders
June 30, 2008
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Macroeconomic Mess 101
June 27, 2008
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Food and Free Trade
April 25, 2008
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Who Needs Inflation Targeting?
April 22, 2008
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Trade Policy for a New Deal on Hunger
April 21, 2008
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India and Its Economic Entanglements
March 28, 2008
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We Must Curb International Flows of Capital
February 25, 2008
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What Is China Doing to Its Workers?
February 8, 2008
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Aid and the Unraveling of Pakistan
January 21, 2008
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India's Poor: From Raw Deal to New Deal
January 15, 2008
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Fact Check, Reality Check? New GDP Data
January 11, 2008
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The Renminbi: The Panda in the Room
December 28, 2007
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India is Converging, But Why?
November 23, 2007
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Markets and the Capital Account Conundrum
October 24, 2007
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India’s Faustian Fiscal Bargain—Part II
October 10, 2007
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India’s Faustian Fiscal Bargain—Part I
September 22, 2007
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A Farewell to Alms
August 22, 2007
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Precocious India
August 14, 2007
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Exchange Rate Management: Reassuring Politics, Reasonable Economics
July 27, 2007
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Doha, RIP
July 10, 2007
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An Alternative to Reservations
June 16, 2007
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Caste Aside
June 8, 2007
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Rupee Appreciation: Lessons from China
May 22, 2007
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Overheating, Exchange Rates, and Foreign Capital
May 10, 2007
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The Paradox of Institutions in India
April 16, 2007
Speeches and Papers
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Aid, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth
[pdf]
December 2009
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How to Revive the Global Trade Negotiations: A Debate
[pdf]
April 30, 2009
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A "Crisis Round" to Save the World Trading System
[pdf]
April 1, 2009
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A Crisis Round of Trade Negotiations?
March 30, 2009
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Financing Woes for the Developing World
[pdf]
March 12, 2009
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The Crisis and the Trillion Dollar Club: An Overview
[pdf]
March 10, 2009
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The World Crisis: Reforming the International Financial System
[pdf]
March 2009
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Economists Seek IMF Reform
January 26, 2009
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The Perils of “New Mercantilism”
[pdf]
January 14, 2009
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India and Bretton Woods II
[pdf]
November 8, 2008
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A Seat at the Table for Emerging Markets
[pdf]
November 4, 2008
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More for the Poor and Less for and by the State: The Case for Direct Cash Transfers
[pdf]
April 12, 2008
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Outlook for Emerging Asia and India
[pdf]
April 3, 2008
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Tariffs, Enforcement, and Customs Evasion: Evidence from India
[pdf]
April 2008
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Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint?
[pdf]
March 2008
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Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?
[pdf]
July 2007
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Capital Account Convertibility: A Neglected Consideration
[pdf]
April 2007
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The Evolution of Institutions in India and its Relationship with Economic Growth
[pdf]
April 2007
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Foreign Capital and Economic Growth
[pdf]
March 2007
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Does Aid Affect Governance?
[pdf]
January 2007
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How to Help Poor Countries
[pdf]
July 2005
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Saving Iraq from Its Oil
[pdf]
July 2004
Non-Institute Publications
- Greenprint: A New Approach to Cooperation on Climate Change (with Aaditya Mattoo), Brookings Institution Press, 2012.
- Which Nations Failed?, in the American Interest, October 30, 2012.
- The Inevitable Superpower: Why China's Dominance Is a Sure Thing, in Foreign Affairs, Volume 90, Number 5, September/October 2011.
- "Who'll Rule? China, India or the West?," in Business Standard, New Delhi, December 22, 2010.
- "Crisscrossing Globalization: The Phenomenon of Uphill Skill Flows," (with Aaditya Mattoo), in Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2009, Global: People, Politics, and Globalization, World Bank, June 2010.
- "Energy Needs and Efficiency, Not Emissions: Re-framing the Climate Change Narrative," (with Nancy Birdsall, Dan Hammer and Kevin Ummel), CGD Working Paper, November 2009.
- "Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing-Country Industrialization?," (with Aaditya Mattoo, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, and Jianwu He), CGD Working Paper, November 2009.
- "Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates," (with Simon Johnson, William Larson and Chris Papageorgiou), CGD Working Paper, November 2009.
- "Currency Undervaluation and Sovereign Wealth Funds: A New Role for the World Trade Organization," World Economy, 32, no. 8 (with Aaditya Mattoo), August 2009. Originally published as Peterson Institute Working Paper 08-2.
- "Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint?," IMF Staff Papers (with Dani Rodrik), January 2009.
- "From Doha to the Next Bretton Woods: A New Multilateral Trade Agenda," Foreign Affairs (with Aaditya Mattoo), January /February 2009.
- India's Turn: Understanding the Economic Transformation. 2008. Oxford University Press.
Praise for the book [pdf]
- "Africa's Growth Prospects: Benchmarking the Constraints," NBER Working Paper (with Simon Johnson and Jonathan Ostry), forthcoming. [pdf]
- "The Political Economy of Nominal Macroeconomic Pathologies" (with Shanker Satyanath), IMF Staff Papers, forthcoming. [pdf]
Longer version.[pdf]
- "Policies, Enforcement, and Customs Evasion: Evidence from India," IMF Working Paper, No. 07/60. (with Prachi Mishra and Petia Topalova), 2007. [pdf]
- "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly," Journal of International Economics, (with Shang-Jin Wei), 2007. [pdf]
- "India's Pattern of Development: What Happened, What Follows," Journal of Monetary Economics (with K. Kochhar, U. Kumar, R. Rajan, and I. Tokatlidis), 2006. [pdf]
- "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Section Evidence Really Show?" National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 11513, (with Raghuram Rajan), 2005. [pdf]
- "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth," NBER Working Paper, No. 11657 (with Raghuram Rajan), 2005 (revised 2006 as "Aid, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth"). [pdf]
- "How to Help Poor Countries" Foreign Affairs (with Nancy Birdsall and Dani Rodrik), July 2005.
- "Why Prospects for Doha Trade Talks are not Bright?" Finance and Development (with Aaditya Mattoo), March 2005. [pdf]
- "Saving Iraq from Its Oil" Foreign Affairs (with Nancy Birdsall), July 2004.
- "From 'Hindu Growth' to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," IMF Staff Papers (with Dani Rodrik), 2004. [pdf]
- "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth (with Dani Rodrik and Francesco Trebbi), 2004. [pdf]
- "TRIPs, Medicines, and Patents," Finance and Development, March 2004. [pdf]
- "Why India can grow at 7 Percent a year or More?" Economic and Political Weekly (with Dani Rodrik), 2004. [pdf]
- "The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and Its Rules of Origin: Generosity Undermined?" The World Economy, Vol. 26, No. 6 (with Aaditya Mattoo and Devesh Roy), 2003. [pdf]
- "India and the Multilateral Trading System Post-Doha: Defensive or Proactive?" in India and the WTO, edited by A. Mattoo and R. Stern, World Bank (with A. Mattoo), 2003. [pdf]
- "India as User and Creator of Intellectual Property: The Challenges Post-Doha," in India and the WTO, edited by A. Mattoo and R. Stern, World Bank, 2003. [pdf]
- "Jagdish Bhagwati and India's Trade Strategy Today," Economic and Political Weekly (with A. Mattoo), 2003. [pdf]
- "The Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria," NBER Working Paper (with Xavier Sala-i-Martin), 2003. [pdf]
- "Who can Explain the Mauritian Miracle: Meade, Romer, Sachs or Rodrik," In Search of Prosperity, edited by Dani Rodrik, Princeton University Press (with Devesh Roy), 2002. [pdf]
- "Putting Some Numbers on the TRIPS Pharmaceutical Debate," International Journal of Technology Management, 1994. [pdf]
NPR's Morning Edition
BRICS Nations Reveal World Bank Alternative
Audio | March 29, 2013
Arvind Subramanian explains to NPR that the BRICS countries plan to establish their own development bank because they are frustrated with the status quo at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
The New York Review of Books: Will the Chinese Be Supreme?
The New York Review of Books' spring issue identifies Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance by Arvind Subramanian as a book to help understand China's emergence as a world power.
The American Interest
Which Nations Failed?
Book review | October 30, 2012
Arvind Subramanian offers a critique of Why Nations Fail, citing China and India as examples that do not fit the book's central conclusion.
C-SPAN
Economics of the New Chinese Government
Video with transcript | October 22, 2012
Arvind Subramanian discusses the economic future of China at a panel hosted by the Heritage Foundation.
CCTV's Biz Asia
Subramanian on US-India Strategic Dialogue
Video | October 10, 2012
Arvind Subramanian tells CCTV what to expect from the US-India Strategic Dialogue, noting the US-India trade relationship has been on autopilot while the China-India trade relationship has grown.
Economist Debates: India's Economy
India's Economy: As Economic Growth Slows, Is India Losing Its Way?
Online debate | October 5–15, 2012
Arvind Subramanian and Shashi Tharoor, an elected member of the Indian Parliament, debate online on the Economist's website whether India is losing its way.
CNBC Asia
Can India Catch Up with China?
Video | September 10, 2012
While promoting his book, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance, in Hong Kong, Arvind Subramanian discusses why India's projected medium-term growth is being revised downwards.
Wall Street Journal | Road Warrior
Why the Skies Are for Readers
Interview | August 27, 2012
"Reading big books on flights...[t]here's a heightened awareness and sensitivity to good literature," shares Arvind Subramanian, author of Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance. This unique scholar's bookworm tendencies, the romance of train travel, his two airport vices, and more are revealed in this Road Warrior interview from the Wall Street Journal.
Atlantic Council
India's Economic Slowdown
Video | August 10, 2012
Arvind Subramanian gives a presentation on India's economic slowdown and joins Shuja Nawaz, director of the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center, for a discussion broadcast by C-SPAN.
PBS NewsHour
Demand for Power in India Outstrips Current Energy Infrastructure
Video | July 31, 2012
Arvind Subramanian discusses the challenges of matching supply with demand for energy in India and the reasons for India's current power grid inefficiencies.
RT
US Role to Fade with China Calling Shots as Creditor
Video with transcript | June 5, 2012
Arvind Subramanian sits down with RT to discuss his book, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance, and how China's financial resources and role as creditor are putting pressure on the United States and the European Union.
CNBC Squawk Box
China Can Prevent a Hard Landing
Video | May 9, 2012
Arvind Subramanian says that there is a low probability of a hard landing in China and that Beijing has the means to prevent such a scenario. Subramanian is author of Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance.
Financial Times
American Nightmare
Review | March 16, 2012
The Financial Times calls Arvind Subramanian's book, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance, "penetrating" and a "rewarding piece of economic analysis."
Imagining the Day China Eclipses America
Excerpt posted at CNN.com
March 12, 2012
What Economist Arvind Subramanian Thinks of 'China 2030'
Review in Wall Street Journal: China Real Time Report
March 2, 2012
Taming the Dragon: One Scholar's Plan to Soften Chinese Dominance
Review in Wired Magazine
February 28, 2012
India's Greatest Minds
India Today
December 26, 2011
Foreign Policy Lists Reinhart and Subramanian among World's Top 100 Thinkers
News Release
November 28, 2011
PopTech Conference 2011
Arvind Subramanian: China’s Ascendance
Video | October 20, 2011
Arvind Subramanian argues that China's dominance is already a reality. Subramanian is author of Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance.
The Inevitable Superpower: Why China's Dominance Is a Sure Thing
Foreign Affairs
Arvind Subramanian
August 23, 2011
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