WORKING PAPER 14-3

Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior

by Cullen S. Hendrix, Peterson Institute for International Economics

July 2014

Anecdotal evidence suggests high oil prices embolden leaders in oil-rich states to pursue more aggressive foreign policies. This article tests the conjecture in a sample of 153 countries for the time period 1947–2001. It finds strong evidence of a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate disputes, with high oil prices associated with significant increases in dispute behavior among oil-exporting states, while having either a negative or null effect on dispute behavior in nonexporting states.

Data disclosure: The data underlying this analysis are available here [xlsx].

View full document [pdf]


RELATED LINKS

Policy Brief 11-10: America’s Energy Security Options June 2011

Policy Brief 10-12: Assessing the American Power Act: The Economic, Employment, Energy Security, and Environmental Impact of Senator Kerry and Senator Lieberman’s Discussion Draft May 2010

Working Paper 10-6: Toward a Sunny Future? Global Integration in the Solar PV Industry May 2010

Policy Brief 09-19: The 2008 Oil Price "Bubble" August 2009

Paper: China Energy: A Guide for the Perplexed May 2007

Policy Brief 09-17: The Economics of Energy Efficiency in Buildings August 2009

Testimony: Structuring a Green Recovery: Evaluating Policy Options for an Economic Stimulus Package January 15, 2009

Policy Brief 09-18: Setting the NAFTA Agenda on Climate Change August 2009

Article: German Leadership and the Pursuit of Energy Security in a Global Economy December 2006

Paper: The Russian Economy: More than Just Energy? April 2009

Speech: Energy Security through Diversity March 23, 2010

Speech: Oil Markets: Principles, Perceptions, and Prices July 29, 2008

Speech: Managing Energy Insecurity February 23, 2005



© 2014 Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics. 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW.
Washington, DC 20036. Tel: 202-328-9000 Fax: 202-659-3225 / 202-328-5432
Site development and hosting by Digital Division