Peterson Institute publications
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan
research institution devoted to the study of international economic policy. More › ›
RSS News Feed Search

Working Paper 14-3

Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior

by Cullen S. Hendrix, Peterson Institute for International Economics

July 2014

View full document [pdf]

Anecdotal evidence suggests high oil prices embolden leaders in oil-rich states to pursue more aggressive foreign policies. This article tests the conjecture in a sample of 153 countries for the time period 1947–2001. It finds strong evidence of a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate disputes, with high oil prices associated with significant increases in dispute behavior among oil-exporting states, while having either a negative or null effect on dispute behavior in nonexporting states.

Data disclosure: The data underlying this analysis are available here [xlsx].


Policy Brief 14-19: US Policies toward Liquefied Natural Gas and Oil Exports: An Update July 2014

Policy Brief 13-6: Liquefied Natural Gas Exports: An Opportunity for America February 2013

Policy Brief 11-10: America’s Energy Security Options June 2011

Policy Brief 10-12: Assessing the American Power Act: The Economic, Employment, Energy Security, and Environmental Impact of Senator Kerry and Senator Lieberman’s Discussion Draft May 2010

Working Paper 10-6: Toward a Sunny Future? Global Integration in the Solar PV Industry May 2010

Paper: China Energy: A Guide for the Perplexed May 2007

Policy Brief 09-17: The Economics of Energy Efficiency in Buildings August 2009

Testimony: Structuring a Green Recovery: Evaluating Policy Options for an Economic Stimulus Package January 15, 2009

Policy Brief 09-18: Setting the NAFTA Agenda on Climate Change August 2009