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RealTime Economic Issues Watch Turbulent Outlook for Greece
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Simeon Djankov and Angel Ubide — June 30, 2015
The escalating confrontation between Greece and its international creditors has further devastated Greece's economic outlook, according to three PIIE experts. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard says that voter rejection of creditor demands in a referendum on July 5 will be disastrous, but even a voter approva ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch What Does the Tsipras Referendum Bode for Greece's Neighbors?
Simeon Djankov — June 30, 2015
Much will be written on the likely deleterious effects of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's surprise call for a referendum of the Greek rescue package. Former prime minister Georgios Papandreou attempted a similar step in November 2011, leading to the resignation of his government a few days lat ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch The Simple Solution for Greece that Europe Won't Try
RealTime Economic Issues Editor — June 30, 2015
In an interview with Ezra Klein of Vox, Adam S. Posen argues that the euro area lacks the fiscal transfer mechanism that exists in the United States enabling poor countr ...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch The Export-Import Bank Strengthens US Businesses in a Changing World
Caroline Freund — June 30, 2015
I spent a week in China in May, and two themes were prominent in meetings with senior policymakers: One Belt, One Road (OBOR) and the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB). OBOR focuses on connectivity in Asia by land and sea by building roads, bridges, and ports. The AIIB is one instrument to finance such infrastructure development on a massive scale...

North Korea: Witness to Transformation Summer Reading: Dimitrov et. al. on Authoritarian Persistence
Stephan Haggard — June 30, 2015
In anticipation of a retreat in Berlin on authoritarian persistence, I finally got around to Martin Dimitrov’s interesting collection for Cambridge (2013) Why Communism Did Not Collapse: Understanding Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Asia and Europe. ( ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Greece Turns from Drama to Tragedy
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — June 29, 2015
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's surprise call last week for a referendum on the austerity proposals by its international creditors, followed by the shuttering of Greece's banks and stock exchange on June 29, opens a dangerous new chapter of its crisis. It could also spell the end of Tsipras's ...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch ISDS Provisions in Korea’s FTAs: Guidance for the TPP
Euijin Jung and Gary Clyde Hufbauer — June 29, 2015
This blog post summarizes key Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions found in Korea’s FTAs with the United States, Australia, Canada, and Vietnam. One purpose of this summary is to highlight similarities and differences, but the primary reason is to offer informed speculation on likely ISDS provisions in the forthcoming TPP text...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch Chinese Tires, Once Again
Tyler Moran and Gary Clyde Hufbauer — June 26, 2015
In 2009, President Obama imposed “market disruption” penalty duties on imports of Chinese passenger vehicle and light truck tires. These duties expired at the end of 2012. A previous PIIE Policy Brief describes the case in greater detail and quantifies the cost to American consumers of that decision. Consumers now risk a repeat journey to the land of penalty duties and higher prices...

Testimony Economic Crisis: The Global Impact of a Greek Default [pdf]
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — June 26, 2015
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard testifies on the probability of a Greek default, its potential effect on the euro area and the global economy, and the exposure to the US taxpayer from IMF loans to Greece.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch President Dilma Rousseff Comes to Town
Monica de Bolle — June 25, 2015
President Dilma Rousseff's visit to Washington next week will mark an important turning point in Brazil-US relations. Or will it? After floundering for several years, it is hard to imagine that the currently lukewarm—and at times decidedly distant—relationship between the two largest ...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch The Case for Mutual Recognition of Auto Safety Regulations in TTIP
Caroline Freund and Sarah Oliver — June 24, 2015
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the United States and European Union seeks to bridge the gap in regulatory standards in order to boost trade and set the rules for the global trading system. The automobile sector is overdue for such reform.

Working Paper 15-10 Recent Declines in Labor's Share in US Income: A Preliminary Neoclassical Account [pdf]
Robert Z. Lawrence — June 24, 2015
The share of labor compensation in US national income has fallen to levels not seen since the 1950s. Robert Z. Lawrence finds out why.

Op-ed A Numbers Argument for Renewing Trade Adjustment Assistance
Robert Z. Lawrence — June 23, 2015
Calculations from a PIIE study of the Trans-Pacific Partnership suggest that those who gain from the trade agreement can afford to offer benefits to those who lose. And that is precisely what the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program does.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Greece: Better Than Expected, But Still Not Good News
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — June 22, 2015
The meeting of the Eurogroup of finance ministers on June 22 marked the first time after five months in office that the Greek government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras proposed reforms that the Eurogroup considered credible enough to even begin to discuss. This alone is a welcome if incompr ...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch The New TAA Package Stands On Its Own Merits
Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Jeffrey J. Schott — June 22, 2015
A majority of Democrats in the House of Representatives did something not only self-defeating but harmful to their constituents earlier this month. On June 12, they joined with Republicans to reject a job-training program long cherished by Democrats and worker advocates...



Vitor Gaspar

IMF Presentation on Fiscal Policy and Growth

Vitor Gaspar presents the IMF's new assessment of the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth.

Ratna Sahay

Rethinking Financial Deepening: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets

Ratna Sahay, IMF, presents the IMF's recent groundbreaking report on where emerging markets are on the stability-growth tradeoff that financial development entails.


The Future of Worldwide Income Distribution

Worldwide income distribution is becoming more equal. This video presents new evidence that global income inequality will decline further in 2035, largely owing to rapid economic growth in the emerging-market economies, with India, China, and Sub-Saharan Africa reaping the most gains.


Turbulent Outlook for Greece

The escalating confrontation between Greece and its international creditors has further devastated Greece's economic outlook. The damage will be severe even if Greek voters defy their prime minister and go along with the creditors' demands, according to Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Simeon Djankov, and Angel Ubide.

An Economic Tragedy in Six Charts

Greece's descent into its difficulties is narrated and visualized through six charts. They focus on the severity of the economic downturn, reduced government spending, the increase in public debt and how Greek debt has changed hands from the private sector to European taxpayers.


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