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C. Fred Bergsten outlines policy suggestions for President Obama as the President prepares a speech on trade policy.

News Release: UK Chancellor Appoints Institute Deputy Director Adam Posen as External Member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee

Morris Goldstein highlights four messages from the global crisis for improving global financial surveillance.

Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann review China's outbound foreign direct investment profile, consider the major drivers and impediments, and present recommendations for policy issues arising from the growing volume and changing nature of Chinese outbound investment. Policy Brief 09-14. See also China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities.

audio Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
Nicholas R. Lardy forecasts an economic rebound in China and says the government's procurement spending in its stimulus program continues a long-standing protectionist bias.
Audio | Transcript [pdf] | See also The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy

Europe’s banking fragility calls for swift creation of a temporary supranational agency to steer triage of major banks on the continent, recapitalizations, and management of distressed assets in public ownership, recommend Adam S. Posen and Nicolas Véron. Policy Brief 09-13 | Op-ed  Posen explains why the real banking crisis for the eurozone is still to come.

C. Randall Henning analyzes the politics and merits of the Obama administration's four-part package to strengthen the International Monetary Fund and urges Congress to quickly approve this legislation. Policy Brief 09-12. See related op-ed and interview.

John Williamson provides an overview of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and discusses recent proposals for this synthetic currency to play a greater role in the international monetary system. Policy Brief 09-11. C. Fred Bergsten supports creating a substitution account through which unwanted dollars held by foreign monetary authorities could be converted into SDRs at the IMF instead of other currencies through the foreign exchange markets.

Gary Clyde Hufbauer testifies before the Senate Finance Committee on the tax and trading aspects of a cap-and-trade system designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Trevor Houser assesses the costs and benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions through improved building efficiency. Policy Brief 09-8. Houser testifies on how well-designed climate policy [pdf] can prevent jobs and emissions from moving overseas. See also Policy Brief 09-3. See also a guide to climate-change laws and the new book Global Warming and the World Trading System.

Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland consider the best approach to dealing with North Korea's nuclear and missile programs and discuss why economic sanctions against North Korea, while politically significant, need to be paired with a broader policy that includes a strongly-stated preference for a negotiated solution. See also "The (Non) Impact of UN Sanctions on North Korea," Korea after Kim Jong-il, and Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. Marcus Noland writes on the ramifications of the latest North Korean nuclear test.

audio Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
Marcus Noland, reporting on new surveys of North Korean refugees, says the United States must engage the Pyongyang government despite myriad frustrations and obstacles standing in the way.
Interview | Event

News Release: MacArthur Foundation Awards Grant to Support Peterson Institute's Innovative Research on North Korea

William Cline and John Williamson, updating their estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates, conclude that the dollar has again become seriously overvalued, principally though not exclusively, against the Chinese renminbi and some other Asian currencies. Policy Brief 09-10. Mohsin S. Khan considers the best exchange rate regime for the planned Gulf Cooperation Council monetary union. Working Paper 09-1.

Edwin M. Truman discusses some early lessons for developing countries from the global economic crisis, particularly that countries should expect and prepare for inevitable future crises. While Mexico has been hit hard by the global crisis, the country has made significant political and economic reforms over the past decade, says Barbara Kotschwar. India's cautious approach to globalization has spared it the worst effects of the global financial crisis, observes Arvind Subramanian. Anders Åslund reviews the causes of the Eastern European financial crisis and compares the present Latvian financial crisis with that of Russia in 1998 and urges the country not to devalue its exchange rate.

Serious financial crises go through seven distinct phases, and Edwin M. Truman estimates the current crisis is now between the containment and the mopping-up phases.

New Book: The Long-Term International Economic Position of the United States edited by C. Fred Bergsten
>> News Release

audio Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
Gary Clyde Hufbauer sees the Chrysler and GM bailouts as running counter to decades of American catechism for other countries and very likely to lead to lawsuits and retaliation by trading partners.
Audio | Transcript [pdf] | See also Money for the Auto Industry: Consistent with WTO Rules?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott observe that the United States has begun to give in to protectionist pressures. See also Policy Brief 09-2.

Adam S. Posen and Marc Hinterschweiger find that recent high growth in financial innovations did not yield high growth in real fixed capital formation, as was intended.

Peterson Perspectives Interviews audio  Is the United States De-emphasizing its Bank Clean-Up Plan? with Michael Mussa | Transcript [pdf]
audio  Geithner in China: What Are the Prospects?
     with Nicholas R. Lardy | Transcript [pdf]
audio  A Snag for the Panama FTA
     with Gary Clyde Hufbauer | Transcript [pdf]

Barbara Kotschwar and Jeffrey J. Schott present three measures for improving and deepening US-Egypt economic relations.

Tariff and nontariff barrier liberalization accounts for almost all US merchandise trade growth since 1980 above and beyond growth that can be explained by expanding GDP in the United States and abroad, find Matthew Adler and Gary Clyde Hufbauer. Working Paper 09-2.

Gary Clyde Hufbauer considers the potential effects of the latest round of Alien Tort Statute litigation. Policy Brief 09-9.

Global Economic Prospects
The current deep global recession will be followed by a V-shaped vigorous recovery [pdf] starting by end 2009, forecasts an optimistic Michael Mussa. Simon Johnson forecasts an L-shaped global recovery, with a severe contraction in the global economy for 2009 and flat growth in 2010. View the event: Global Economic Prospects: L- or V-shaped Recovery?

US Banking Crisisline

Adam S. Posen provides a guide to grading Treasury's stress tests and the Public-Private Investment Partnership (PPIP). William R. Cline concludes that the federal stress tests on banks have brought transparency and potential for improvement in the stability of the financial system in this website interview.

Simon Johnson testifies on the dangers to the financial system posed by large insolvent banks. Listen to related interview.

Adam S. Posen finds Treasury's newest plan to clean up US banks disappointingly similar to failed Japanese efforts to resolve Japan's decade-long banking crisis and offers seven lessons from Japan's "lost decade" [pdf].

line

Book: Banking on Basel: The Future of International Financial Regulation by Daniel K. Tarullo
>> Event: Book Release

Book: Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies by Nouriel Roubini and Brad Setser

Arvind Subramanian and Devesh Kapur argue for a direct cash transfer scheme to replace many of India's current inefficient anti-poverty programs.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch:
The Global Financial Crisis

Views updated daily on the current crisis in global financial markets, its impact on the real economy, and the public policy choices confronting the United States and other countries.

New Book: The Russia Balance Sheet by Anders Åslund and Andrew Kuchins
>> Event | Interview with Åslund

Anders Åslund sees Putin’s new course on Russia’s WTO accession as a sign that he and his allies have reasserted control over Russian policy.

The Russian gas giant Gazprom's struggles provide an opportunity for Russian and European energy-sector reform, according to Anders Åslund.

Morris Goldstein outlines how to reform financial regulation and who should do it. See also "A Ten Plank Program for Financial Regulatory Reform." [pdf]

Arvind Subramanian and John Williamson present reforms designed to make the international financial system less susceptible to major crises [pdf] .

The Obama administration should lower the federal marginal corporate tax rate to 25 percent or less and shift from a worldwide tax system to a territorial system, recommend Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jisun Kim. Policy Brief 09-7.

Any common regional fund East Asian governments might create should complement, not break from, global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, stresses C. Randall Henning. Policy Brief 09-5. Listen also to a Peterson Perspectives interview with C. Randall Henning.

Adam S. Posen's Restoring Japan's Economic Growth is a "must read" for how fiscal policy works in a liquidity trap (see chapter 2 [pdf]), says Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman. Posen warned in 2007 of the financial risks in Europe [pdf] now being realized, and of the limits on Germany's long-term sustainable growth. See also "The Four Horsemen of Subprime Stupidity." [pdf]

EVENT

Minister Anand Sharma India in a Globalized World

Minister Anand Sharma addresses the challenges India faces in a globalized world.



Event materials available online

EVENT

Daniel Tarullo Global Financial Regulation Reform in the Wake of the Crisis

Federal Reserve Board member Daniel K. Tarullo discusses global financial regulation reform.

Event materials available online

EVENT

William R. Cline Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates (FEERs): Estimates for 2009

Cline and Williamson present their updated FEERs estimates and find the dollar significantly overvalued.

Event materials available online

FEATURED

China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities

C. Fred Bergsten, ed.

REALTIME ECONOMIC ISSUES

Global Financial Crisis
Views updated daily on the current crisis in global financial markets, its impact on the real economy, and the public policy choices confronting the United States and other countries.

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