Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance Arvind Subramanian presents his book to Wen Jiabao Arvind Subramanian in meeting with President Obama Arvind Subramanian with Jimmy and Rosalyn Carter
Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s
Economic Dominance

by Arvind Subramanian
 
Eclips: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance

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Book Data
September 2011
ISBN paper
978-0-88132-606-2
236 pp.
$21.95 $17.56
(20% discount)

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"Parts of Eclipse read like a wonky version of Rising Sun, Michael Crichton's 1992 novel of Japanese dominance over the U.S. when Tokyo was seen as speeding toward number one. But Mr. Subramanian is a first-class economist who uses his book to discuss provocatively U.S.-Chinese relations and the nature of economic power."

Wall Street Journal

"Subramanian makes a compelling point, which should receive wide attention."

Henry A. Kissinger

"It's a very important contribution to an immensely important subject: essentially nothing short of the future of the world. And I admire much of it. It's brave, it's intelligent, and it's justly and rightly controversial."

Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, the Financial Times

"If you want to understand the true magnitude of the shift in economic power that is currently changing the world, Eclipse is the book to read—provocative, well argued and elegantly written."

Liaquat Ahamed, Pulitzer Prize winning author of Lords of Finance

"Defying conventional wisdom, Eclipse not just vividly imagines, but provides a plausible scenario for, the replacement of the United States by China as the world's dominant economic power. It persuasively underlines the need for Washington to get its act together."

Francis Fukuyama, Stanford University and author of The End of History and the Last Man and The Origins of Political Order

"Eclipse must be read for a refreshing and deep analysis of what may lie ahead. It is an extremely well written and thought provoking book."

Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Executive, PIMCO and award-winning author of When Markets Collide

"In terms of providing an essential structure for discussion of this problem, Arvind Subramanian's new book, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance, is a major contribution. ... In particular, Subramanian develops an index of economic dominance that should become a focus of conversation anywhere that people want to think about changes in world economic leadership. There is no need to know any economics in order to be fascinated by this book: it is about power, pure and simple. ... The story is fascinating and well told."

Simon Johnson, coauthor of 13 Bankers

"Eclipse is a fascinating read. Controversial, but meant to be, it has the potential to set the terms of our ongoing discussion on what is perhaps the hottest issue in the global economy—China's role. Its quantification of power alone will attract considerable interest."

Dani Rodrik, Professor of Economics, Harvard University and author of The Globalization Paradox


  • Description
  • Author Bio
  • Publicity
  • Praise
  • Book Events

In his new book, Arvind Subramanian presents the following possibilities: What if, contrary to common belief, China's economic dominance is a present-day reality rather than a faraway possibility? What if the renminbi's takeover of the dollar as the world's reserve currency is not decades, but mere years, away? And what if the United States's economic pre-eminence is not, as many economists and policymakers would like to believe, in its own hands, but China's to determine?

Subramanian's analysis is based on a new index of economic dominance grounded in a historical perspective. His examination makes use of real-world examples, comparing China's rise with the past hegemonies of Great Britain and the United States. His attempt to quantify and project economic and currency dominance leads him to the conclusion that China's dominance is not only more imminent, but also broader in scope, and much larger in magnitude, than is currently imagined. He explores the profound effect this might have on the United States, as well as on the global financial and trade system. Subramanian concludes with a series of policy proposals for other nations to reconcile China's rise with continued openness in the global economic order, and to insure against China becoming a malign hegemon.

See also Working Paper 11-14: Renminbi Rules: The Conditional Imminence of the Reserve Currency Transition

CONTENTS

Preface

Acknowledgments

Introduction


1. A Brief History of Economic Dominance

2. Quantification and Validation of Economic Dominance

3. Quantifying Currency Dominance

4. Forces Driving Dominance: Convergence and Gravity

5. Projecting Economic and Currency Dominance

6. A Historical Perspective on China’s Distinctive Dominance

7. Guarding Against Rash Prophesying

8. Economic Cooperation with a Rising China

9. China as the New Raison d’Être for Reviving Multilateralism

Postscript: America Resurgent or America Vulnerable?

References

Index

Arvind Subramanian
Arvind Subramanian is senior fellow jointly at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Center for Global Development. His book Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance was published in September 2011. Foreign Policy magazine has named him as one of the world's top 100 global thinkers in 2011.

He was assistant director in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. He served at the GATT (1988–92) during the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations and taught at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government (1999–2000) and at Johns Hopkins' School for Advanced International Studies (2008–10).

He has written on growth, trade, development, institutions, aid, oil, India, Africa, and the World Trade Organization. He has published widely in academic and other journals, including the American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Foreign Affairs, World Economy, and Economic and Political Weekly.

He has also published or been cited in leading magazines and newspapers, including the Economist, Financial Times, Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, and New York Review of Books. He contributes frequently to the Financial Times and is a columnist in India's leading financial daily, Business Standard.

He advises the Indian government in different capacities, including as a member of the Finance Minister's Expert Group on the G-20. His book India's Turn: Understanding the Economic Transformation was published in 2008 by Oxford University Press.

He obtained his undergraduate degree from St. Stephens College, Delhi; his MBA from the Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad, India; and his M.Phil and D.Phil from the University of Oxford, UK.

cartoon
Cartoon of Eclipse at PopTech 2011: A Rebalancing World conference
by Peter Durand, Alphachimp Studio

Will the Chinese Be Supreme?
The New York Review of Books
April 4, 2013

Can India Catch Up with China?
Video interview on CNBC Asia
September 10, 2012

Why the Skies Are for Readers
Interview in the Wall Street Journal's Road Warrior column
August 27, 2012

US Role to Fade with China Calling Shots as Creditor
Interview on RT
June 5, 2012

American Nightmare
Review in the Financial Times by Gideon Rachman
March 16, 2012

Imagining the Day China Eclipses America
Excerpt posted at CNN.com
March 12, 2012

What Economist Arvind Subramanian Thinks of 'China 2030'
Review in Wall Street Journal: China Real Time Report
March 2, 2012

Taming the Dragon: One Scholar's Plan to Soften Chinese Dominance
Review in Wired Magazine
February 28, 2012

India's Greatest Minds
India Today
December 26, 2011

Livro analisa migração de poder dos EUA para a China
Review in Folha de S. Paulo
December 3, 2011

Foreign Policy Lists Reinhart and Subramanian among World's Top 100 Thinkers
News Release
November 28, 2011

The Rise of China [pdf]
Review in Economic & Political Weekly
November 19, 2011

Will Anyone Rescue Europe from Its Economic Crisis?
Review in the Washington Post
November 15, 2011

China's Role in European Crisis, Potential Rescue
Interview on Bloomberg
November 3, 2011

China Warily Eyes EU Bailout
Interview on NPR
November 3, 2011

China's Price For Bailing Out the EU
Interview on NPR On Point
November 1, 2011

From American Hegemony to Pax Sinica
Review in the Hong Kong Economic Journal
October 22, 2011

'Eclipse'
Review by Martin Wolf in the Financial Times
October 16, 2011

Three Big Thinkers at Davos on the Potomac
Review in MarketWatch
October 3, 2011

Guest Contribution: How to Value a Currency
Wall Street Journal RealTime Economics
Arvind Subramanian
October 3, 2011

In the Heat of the Sun
Review in Finance & Development
September 2011

How to tame a dominant China
Review in the Economic Times
September 28, 2011

China first middle-income nation on course to becoming superpower
Interview in the Economic Times
September 27, 2011

Is China Eclipsing the U.S.? Hardly
Review in the Wall Street Journal
September 21, 2011

The Yuan as the World's Main Reserve Currency
Debate in the Economist
September 20, 2011

A Sinopolar World
Review in the Business Standard
September 12, 2011

The Celestial Economy
Review in the Economist
September 10, 2011

In China's Shadow: Q&A with Arvind Subramanian
Review in the New York Forum
September 9, 2011

In The China Debate Continues
Review in the Wall Street Journal
September 9, 2011

Red Dawn: Why the United States Should Embrace, not Fear, China's Economic Rise
Review in Foreign Policy
September 6, 2011

Superpower China: Inevitable or Fragile?
Review in the Financial Times
September 1, 2011

China Yuan Could Challenge Dollar Role in a Decade
Review in Reuters
August 30, 2011

Economist Visualizes Chinese World Domination By 2021
Review in Business Insider
August 25, 2011

Eight Questions: Living in China's Shadow
Interview in Real Time Economics—Wall Street Journal
August 25, 2011

Eight Questions: Living in China's Shadow
Interview in China Real Time Report—Wall Street Journal
August 25, 2011

Countering China's Economic Dominance
Op-ed in the Business Standard
Arvind Subramanian
August 24, 2011

The Inevitable Superpower: Why China's Dominance Is a Sure Thing
Article in Foreign Affairs
Arvind Subramanian
August 23, 2011

"Subramanian makes a compelling point, which should receive wide attention."

Henry A. Kissinger

"Parts of Eclipse read like a wonky version of Rising Sun, Michael Crichton's 1992 novel of Japanese dominance over the U.S. when Tokyo was seen as speeding toward number one. But Mr. Subramanian is a first-class economist who uses his book to discuss provocatively U.S.-Chinese relations and the nature of economic power."

Wall Street Journal

"It's a very important contribution to an immensely important subject: essentially nothing short of the future of the world. And I admire much of it. It's brave, it's intelligent, and it's justly and rightly controversial."

Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, the Financial Times

"If you want to understand the true magnitude of the shift in economic power that is currently changing the world, Eclipse is the book to read—provocative, well argued and elegantly written."

Liaquat Ahamed, Pulitzer Prize winning author of Lords of Finance

"Defying conventional wisdom, Eclipse not just vividly imagines, but provides a plausible scenario for, the replacement of the United States by China as the world's dominant economic power. It persuasively underlines the need for Washington to get its act together."

Francis Fukuyama, Stanford University and author of The End of History and the Last Man and The Origins of Political Order

"Since its release, ... Arvind's new book has made intellectual waves. It has been reviewed, critically acclaimed, discussed, debated, and analyzed in virtually every major publication of intellectual repute. At a time when there is a new book on China practically every week, for a book to attract this sort of notice and praise is truly remarkable, and a tribute to Arvind's solid scholarship, incisive insights, and analytical skills."

Duvvuri Subbarao, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India

"Eclipse is...fascinating, highly readable and often brilliant. It combines deep scholarship with wit."

Swaminathan S. Aiyar, the Economic Times

"Eclipse must be read for a refreshing and deep analysis of what may lie ahead. It is an extremely well written and thought provoking book."

Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Executive, PIMCO and award-winning author of When Markets Collide

"In terms of providing an essential structure for discussion of this problem, Arvind Subramanian's new book, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance, is a major contribution. ... In particular, Subramanian develops an index of economic dominance that should become a focus of conversation anywhere that people want to think about changes in world economic leadership. There is no need to know any economics in order to be fascinated by this book: it is about power, pure and simple. ... The story is fascinating and well told."

Simon Johnson, coauthor of 13 Bankers

"Eclipse is a fascinating read. Controversial, but meant to be, it has the potential to set the terms of our ongoing discussion on what is perhaps the hottest issue in the global economy—China's role. Its quantification of power alone will attract considerable interest."

Dani Rodrik, Professor of Economics, Harvard University and author of The Globalization Paradox

"Arvind Subramanian demonstrates rather convincingly that in the past decade or so, the world economic order has changed in favour of the rise of China as the new economic superpower."

International Affairs

"...rewarding piece of economic analysis...sober and precise."

Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

     
Location Date Description
Hong Kong September 10, 2012 Book Presentation at the Asia Society
Beijing March 17, 2012 Book Presentation [pdf] at the China Development Forum
Presentation
Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao meets Arvind Subramanian.
Singapore March 8, 2012 Book Presentation at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
Shanghai March 2–18, 2012 Shanghai International Literary Festival 2012: A Feast of Literature
Promotion poster [pdf]
Beijing February 25–March 7, 2012 Capital Literary Festival 2012
Promotion poster [pdf]
Washington, DC February 23, 2012 Presentation on India at the National Economics Club
Washington, DC February 21, 2012 Book Presentation at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
Listen to recording [mp3]
Chennai, India December 20, 2011 Presentation at Aspen Society of India
New Delhi, India December 16, 2011 Presentation at Aspen Society of India
Beijing December 15, 2011 Presentation at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
Beijing December 14, 2011 Caijing Annual Conference 2012: Forecasts & Strategies

Former President Jimmy Carter with Arvind Subramanian
Beijing December 14, 2011 Book presentation at Foreign Correspondents Press Club
Washington, DC December 1, 2011 Book Presentation at World Bank
New York, NY November 21, 2011 Presentation at dinner hosted by Bob Rubin and Sebastian Mallaby at the Council on Foreign Relations
Washington, DC November 9, 2011 Brookings Foreign Policy Luncheon Series hosted by Robert Kagan at the Brookings Institution
Chicago, IL November 1, 2011 Book Presentation at Global Affairs Council of Chicago
Camden, ME October 19–20, 2011 Book presentation at PopTech 2011: A World Rebalancing conference (video)
Event photos Cartoon at PopTech illustrating theme of Eclipse
poptech images alphachimp image by Peter Durand,
Alphachimp Studio
New York, NY October 18, 2011 New York Book Release at Asia Society, New York
(Eclipse selected by Citi Foundation to be sponsored under their Asian Business Leaders series)
More information
New Delhi, India October 11, 2011 Book Presentation at Center for Policy Research
RBI Auditorium, Mumbai, India October 7, 2011 Talk delivered by Dr. Arvind Subramanian “Will the Renminbi Eclipse the Dollar?”
Chatham House, London October 5, 2011 Book Presentation at Chatham House
More information
Talloires,
France
September 29–30, 2011 Book Presentation at Tufts University European Center
Bruegel, Brussels September 26, 2011 Lecture on issues of the book at European think-tank Bruegel
Washington, DC September 23, 2011 Book Release at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
Capitol Hill September 22, 2011 Briefing for select Congressman sponsored by Aspen Institute
Capitol Hill September 21, 2011 Testimony by Arvind Subramanian to US Congress Joint Economic Committee
See testimony [pdf]