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Working Paper 97-1
Tables

Chasing Phantoms: The Political Economy of USTR

© Institute for International Economics.

Table 1: Unilateral Trade Actions, 1984-1994

Year	Statute	Target
1985	Section 301	Brazil informatics
1985	Section 301	Japan tobacco
1985	Section 301	Korea insurance
1985	Section 301	Japan semiconductors
1985	Section 301	Korea intellectual property rights
1985	Section 301	European Community fertilizer
1986	Section 301	European Community agriculture
1986	Section 301	Canada herring and salmon
1986	Section 301	Taiwan beer, wine, tobacco
1986	Section 301	Argentina soybeans
1987	Section 301	India almonds
1987	Section 301	Japan semiconductors
1987	Section 301	Brazil pharmaceutical patents
1987	Section 301	E.C. third country meat directive
1987	Section 301	Brazil computer software
1988	Section 301	European Community soybeans
1988	Section 301	South Korea cigarettes
1988	Section 301	South Korea beef
1988	Section 301	Japan oranges and orange juice
1988	Section 301	South Korea Wines
1988	Section 301	EC copper zinc and copper alloy
1988	Section 301	Japan construction
1989	Section 301	European Community canned fruit
1989	Section 301	Thailand cigarettes
1989	Section 301	Brazil import licensing
1989	Section 301	Japan wood products
1989	Section 301	India investment
1989	Section 301	India services
1989	Section 301	Norway toll equipment
1990	Section 301	Canada beer
1990	Section 301	European Community enlargement
1990	Section 301	Thailand intellectual property rights
1991	Section 301	European Community meat
1991	Section 301	Thailand intellectual property rights
1991	Section 301	India intellectual property rights
1991	Section 301	China intellectual property rights
1991	Section 301	Canada softwood lumber
1991	Section 301	China market access
1991	Title VII	Norway government procurement
1992	Section 301	Taiwan intellectual property
1992	Section 301	Indonesia pencil slats
1992	Title VII	European Community telecoms
1993	Section 301	Brazil intellectual property rights
1993	Title VII	Japan construction
1994	Section 1377	Japan cellular telephone
1994	Section 301	EU bananas
1994	Section 301	Colombia bananas
1994	Section 301	Costa Rica bananas

Source: USTR, Trade Policy Agenda and Annual Report, various issues.

Table 2: Export and Investment Regressions

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES	DEPENDENT VARIABLES
	LEXP	LINV
CONSTANT	1.58	-0.29
	(3.43)^a	(-5.27)^a
LGDP	0.26	-0.01
	(8.98)^a	(0.13)
LGDPPC	0.08	0.08
	(-2.86)^a	(1.73)^c
GDPGROWTH	2.09	-2.43
	(4.36)^a	(-3.22)^a
LEXP		1.08
		(17.13)^a
LINV	0.50
	(19.57)^a
BORDER	0.56	-0.63
	(3.21)^a	(-2.75)^a
IIT	1.00
	(6.38)^a
ENGLISH		0.56
		(4.90)^a
LANDLOCKED	-1.23	1.03
	(-9.04)^a	(4.75)
LDIST	-0.16
	(-3.20)^a
R2	0.80	0.70

Note: Superscripts a and c indicate 1 and 10 percent significant level, respectively. valudes in parentheses are t statistics.

Legend:

LEXP = log exports
LINV = log foreign direct investment
LGDP = log gross domestic product
LGDPPC = log gross domestic product per capita
GDPGROWTH = gross domestic product growth rate
ITT = Intra=industry trade index
BORDER = dummy variable for common border with US
ENGLISH = dummy variable for shared use of English

Table 3: Correlations, 1984-1993

	ATTENTION	ACTION
TARIFF	0.10^c	-0.01
STNDTAR	-0.09	-0.07
XRESID	0.10^c	-0.01
INVRESID	-0.00	0.04
GDP	0.63^a	0.49^a
GDPGROWTH	-0.03	-0.01
TBAL	-0.67^a	-0.33^a
EXPORT	0.57^a	0.40^a
FDI	0.43^a	0.39^a
IIT	0.12^b	0.10^c

Note: Superscripts a, b, and c indicate
1, 5, and 10 percent significant level, respectively.

Table 4: Pooled Time-Series Cross-Section Regressions on
Attention, 1984-1993

Independent Variables
	(4.1)	(4.2)	(4.3)	(4.4)	(4.5)	(4.6)
GDP	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
	(3.65)^a	(3.69)^a	(3.63)^a	(3.68)^a	(3.61)^a	(3.66)^a
GDP GROWTH	4.56	4.63	4.58	4.67	4.58	4.67
	(2.04)^b	(1.85)^c	(2.04)^b	(1.86)^c	(2.04)^b	(1.85)^c
TBAL	-0.30	-0.29	-0.30	-0.29	0.30	-0.29
	(-4.60)^a	(-4.24)^a	(-4.55)^a	(-4.20)^a	(-4.53)^a	(-4.18)^a
IIT	2.09	1.95	1.99	1.85	1.99	1.84
	(1.58)	(1.40)	(1.30)	(1.18)	(1.29)	(1.18)
EXPORT	-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.08
	(-1.56)	(-1.58)	(-1.56)	(-1.56)	(-1.55)	(1.56)
FDI	0.07	0.06	0.07	0.06	0.07	0.06
	(2.29)^b	(2.10)^b	(2.28)^b	(2.14)^b	(2.27)^b	(2.13)^b
TARIFF	1.20		1.04		1.04
	(0.25)		(0.21)		(0.21)
TARIFF STND	-3.55		-6.45		-6.34
	(-0.09)		(-0.01)		(-0.02)
XRESIDS		-2.05		-2.07		-2.07
		(-1.28)		(-1.28)		(-1.28)
INVRESIDS		-1.19		-1.20		-1.20
		(-1.20)		(-1.20)		(-1.19)
EUROPE			-0.10	-0.08	0.07	-0.08
			(-0.20)	(-0.17)	(0.20)	(-0.16)
ASIA			-0.11	-0.07	-0.40	-0.07
			(-0.21)	(-0.15)	(-1.08)	(-0.15)
CARIBBEAN			0.39	0.22	-0.74	0.22
			(0.54)	(0.30)	(-0.00)	(0.30)
SOUTH AMERICA			-0.05	0.02	-0.25	0.02
			(-0.08)	0.05	(-0.58)	(0.05)
JAPAN					1.58	-0.02
					(3.62)^a	(-0.02)
RSQUARE	.21	.22	.21	.22	.21	.22

Note: Superscript a indicates significance at 1 percent level; b at 5 percent level; c at 10 percent level.

Legend:

GDP = Gross domestic product (millions of dollars)
GDPGROWTH = Growth rate of GDP
TBAL = Trade balances (millions of dollars)
IIT = Index of Intra-industry trade
EXPORT = U.S. exports (millions of dollars)
FDI = Foreign direct investment (millions of dollars)
TARIFF=Average percentage tariff
TARIFF STND=Standard deviation of tariffs
XRESIDS = Residuals from Table 2 export regression (millions of dollars)
INVRESIDS = Residuals from Table 2 investment regression (millions of dollars)
EUROPE, ASIA, CARIBBEAN, SOUTH AMERICA, JAPAN = dummy variables

Table 5: Pooled Time-Series Cross-Section Regression on Actions, 1984-1993

Independent Variables	(5.1)	(5.2)	(5.3)	(5.4)	(5.5)	(5.6)
GDP	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00
	(-0.29)	(-0.28)	(-0.32)	(-0.40)	(-0.30)	(-0.38)
GDP GROWTH	1.83	1.77	2.04	1.85	2.40	(-0.38)
	(0.83)	(0.76)	0.91	(0.77)	(1.10)	2.35
TBAL	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.93
	(-0.61)	(-0.56)	(-0.61)	(-0.52)	(0.49)	-0.02
IIT	2.32	2.24	2.04	2.82	2.08	2.80
	(2.83)^a	(2.65)^a	(1.98)^b	(2.74)^a	(2.08)^b	(2.83)
EXPORT	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
	(0.63)	(0.61)	(0.55)	(0.60)	(0.50)	(0.54)
FDI	-1.54	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00
	(-0.09)	(-0.07)	(-0.04)	(-0.02)	(-0.06)	(-0.03)
TARIFF	1.89		2.11		2.05
	(4.01)^a		(3.85)^a		(3.71)^a
TARIFF STND	4.57		5.13		5.62
	(2.83)^a		(2.91)^a		(3.11)^a
XRESIDS		0.33		0.39		0.38
		(0.30)		(0.32)		(0.31)
INVRESIDS		0.06		0.08		0.04
		(0.09)		(0.10)		(0.05)
EUROPE			0.07	0.37	0.07	0.38
			(0.18)	(1.06)	(0.20)	(1.09)
ASIA			-0.19	0.31	-0.40	0.11
			(-0.52)	(0.95)	(-1.08)	(0.34)
CARIBBEAN			-0.70	-0.68	-0.74	-0.70
			(-0.00)	(0.00)	(-0.00)	(-0.00)
SOUTH AMERICA			-0.29	0.13	-0.25	0.14
			(-0.65)	(0.37)	(-0.58)	(0.39)
JAPAN					1.58	1.60
					(3.62)^a	(3.69)^a
LOG LIKELHOOD	-107.86	-117.02	-104.69	-114.05	-97.93	-107.05
% CASES CORRECT	0.89	0.88	0.89	0.88	0.90	0.89

Note: Superscript a indicates significance at 1 percent level; b at 5 percent level;
c at 10 percent level. Legend: GDP = Gross domestic product (millions of dollars)

Legend:

GDP GROWTH = Growth rate of GDP
TBAL = Trade balances (millions of dollars)
IIT = Index of Intra-industry trade
EXPORT = U.S. exports (millions of dollars)
FDI = Foreign direct investment (millions of dollars)
TARIFF = Average percentage tariff
TARIFF STND = Standard deviation of tariffs
XRESIDS = Residuals from Table 2 export regression (millions of dollars)
INVRESIDS = Residuals from Table 2 investment regression (millions of dollars)
EUROPE, ASIA, CARIBBEAN, SOUTH AMERICA, JAPAN = dummy variables

Table 6: Regressions on Implicit Trade Barriers

DEPENDENT VARIABLES	INDEPENDENT VARIABLES	R²	F-TEST
XRESID_t	ATTENTION_t-1	0.001	0.56
	ATTENTION_{t-1 TO t-4}	0.075	7.04^a
	ACTION_t-1	0.001	0.65
	ACTIONt-1 TO 1-4	0.018	3.78^a
INVRESID_t	ATTENTION_t-1	0.001	0.51
	ATTENTION_{t-1 TO t-4}	0.115	11.29^a
	ACTION_t-1	0.002	0.44
	ACTION_{t-1 TO t-4}	0.024	4.95^a
XRESIDt-XRESID_t-1	ATTENTION_t-1	0.000	0.00
	ATTENTION_{t-1 TO t-4}	0.010	0.50
	ACTION_t-1	0.000	0.55
	ACTION_{t-1 TO t-4}	0.000	0.00
INVRESIDt-INVRESID_t-1	ATTENTION_t-1	0.000	0.00
	ATTENTION_{t-1 TO t-4}	0.003	0.26
	ACTION_t-1	0.000	0.00
	ACTION_{t-1 TO t-4}	0.000	0.00

Note: Superscript a indicates significance at the 1 percent level.

Table 7: Resolution of Disputes by Issue and by Country (All Cases)

Success Defined as Resolution of Issue in Following Year.

ISSUES COUNTRIES	IP	STAND	GP	XSUBS	IPR	COUNT	SERV	INV	OTHER	TOTAL

ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA AUSTRIA BRAZIL CANADA CHILE CHINA COLOMBIA COSTA RICA DOMINICAN REP ECUADOR EGYPT EU FINLAND GUATEMALA HONG KONG INDIA INDONESIA ISRAEL JAPAN KOREA MALAYSIA MEXICO NEW ZEALAND NORWAY PHILLIPINES POLAND RUSSIA SINGAPORE SOUTH AFRICA SWEDEN SWITZERLAND TAIWAN THAILAND TURKEY VENEZUELA TOTAL	0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08	N/A 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.31 0.71 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.00 0.33 0.71 0.40 0.29	0.50 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.31 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.30 N/A 0.00 0.00 N/A N/A N/A 0.47 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.23	N/A 0.00 N/A 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A 0.35 0.50 0.45 0.43 0.30 N/A N/A 0.45 N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 N/A N/A 0.71 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.29	0.00 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.30 0.71 0.00 0.00 0.30 N/A 0.33 N/A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.00 N/A N/A 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.18	N/A N/A N/A 0.58 N/A N/A N/A 0.58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.85/d	0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.30 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 N/A 0.37 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 0.30 N/A 0.33 0.22	N/A 0.00 N/A 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 N/A 0.30 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.58 0.00 N/A 0.31 N/A N/A 0.30 0.20	0.71 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.00 N/A N/A N/A 0.24 0.28 N/A N/A 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.28 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 0.43 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.71 0.50 0.73 0.32 N/A 1.16/d 0.71 0.30	0.26 0.16 0.31 0.27 0.16 N/A N/A 0.23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.19 0.33 N/A N/A 0.15 0.20 0.28 0.15 0.11 0.30 0.22 0.28 0.60 0.18 N/A N/A 0.23 0.34 0.37 0.66 0.24 0.25 0.31 0.30 0.22

Note: N/A = Not Applicable, d = significant at the 0.25 level.
Note: IP stands for Import Policies; STAND = Standards; GP = Government Procurement; XSUBS = Export Subsidies; IPR = Intellectual Property; COUNT = Countertrade; SERV = barriers in the services sector; INV = barriers to investment; OTHER = Other barriers.

Table 8: Resolution of Disputes by Country Success Defined as Resolution of Issue by Terminal Year

Country	Case A: All Cases	Case B: 1985 Subsample
ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA AUSTRIA BRAZIL CANADA CHILE CHINA COLUMBIA COSTA RICA DOMINICAN REP. ECUADOR EGYPT EU FINLAND GUATEMALA HONG KONG INDIA INDONESIA ISRAEL JAPAN KOREA MALAYSIA MEXICO NEW ZEALAND NORWAY PHILLIPINES POLAND RUSSIA SINGAPORE SOUTH AFRICA SWEDEN SWITZERLAND TAIWAN THAILAND TURKEY VENEZUELA TOTAL	0.73 0.47 0.43 0.93/d 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.95/d 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.83/d 1.3/d 0.00 N/A 0.50 0.72 0.73 0.35 0.54 1.09/d 0.71 1.10/d 1.41/d 0.72/d 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.91/d 0.87/d INF. 0.93/d 1.29/d 0.39 1.21/d 0.70/d	0.82/d 0.67 0.00 1.11/d 0.80/d 0.00 N/A 0.82/d N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.00/c INF. N/A N/A 0.38 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.63 1.00/d 0.82/d 0.87/d 0.87/d 0.73 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 0.00 INF. 1.22/d 1.00/d N/A 1.58/c 0.89/d

Note: d = significant at the .25 level; c = significant at the .10 level.
Note: INF. = Infinity.

Table 9: Resolution of Disputes by Issue

Success Defined as Resolution of Issue by Terminal Year

POLICY	CASE A: ALL CASES	CASE B: 1985 SUBSAMPLE
Import Policy	0.36	0.47
Standards	0.88/d	1.5/c
Government Procurement	0.52	0.58
Export Subsidies	1.17/c	2.04/c
Intellectual Property	0.58	0.72
Countertrade	INF.	INF.
Services Barriers	0.71/d	0.61
Investment Barriers	0.61	0.96/d
Other Barriers	1.08/d	1.56/c
Total	0.70/d	0.89/d

Note: N/A = Not Applicable. INF = Infinity.
Note: d = significant at the .25 level; c = significant at the .10 level.

Table 10: Determinants of Success

	Dependent Variables		Dependent Variables

	Case A Success	Rates	Case B Success	Rates
	(10.1)	(10.2)	(10.3)	(10.4)
Independent Variables
Constant	-0.27	-0.19	-0.44	-0.65
	(-0.82)	(-0.80)	(-0.81)	(-1.60)
LEXPRAT	0.26	0.29	0.45	0.47
	(3.18)a	(3.97)a	(2.52)b	(3.14)a
LIMPRAT	-0.37	-0.38	-0.40	-0.37
	(-3.06)a	(-4.45)a	(-1.60)	(-2.25)b
LFDIRAT	0.11	0.10	0.12	0.04
	(1.65)	(3.04)a	(0.83)	(0.65)
LGDP	0.03	0.02	0.08	0.06
	(1.14)	(0.82)	(1.50)	(1.31)
LGDPCAP	0.06	0.06	0.13	0.16
	(1.81)c	(2.36)b	(2.11)b	(3.35)a
TBAL	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01
	(1.94)a	(2.57)b	(1.64)	(1.93)c
XRESID	0.05		-0.24
	(0.28)		(-0.82)
INVRESID	0.00		-0.20
	(0.01)		(-0.87)
TARIFF		0.00		-0.01
		(0.04)		(-1.99)c
TARIFF STND		-0.00		0.01
		(-1.88)c		(1.09)
R2	.62	.68	.54	.63

Note: Superscript a indicates significance at the 1 percent level,
b at the 5 percent level, and c at the 10 percent level.

Table 11: Tests of Coefficient Stability

		F-test
Reagan v. Bush
Regression	4.1	9.74^a
	4.2	9.33^a
	4.5	6.86^a
	4.6	12.02^a
Regression	5.1	5.92
	5.2	5.93
	5.5	4.40
	5.6	4.15
Bush v. Clinton
Regression	4.1	1.30
	4.2	0.26
	4.5	1.49
	4.6	0.58
Regression	5.1	4.51
	5.2	4.01
	5.5	3.48
	5.6	2.89

Note: Superscript a indicates significance at the 1 percent level.

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