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Working Paper 14-8 Official Financial Flows, Capital Mobility, and Global Imbalances [pdf]
Tamim Bayoumi, Joseph E. Gagnon and Christian Saborowski — October 23, 2014
Tamim Bayoumi, Joseph E. Gagnon, and Christian Saborowski analyze the effect of net official flows (chiefly foreign exchange intervention) on current accounts, finding that such flows have a large but plausible effect on current account balances.

Op-ed The Trans-Pacific Partnership's Missing Ingredient
Simon Johnson — October 23, 2014
Now is the ideal time to include a currency clause in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, as most of the negotiating countries are unlikely to become defensive.

Op-ed Marshall's Postwar Logic Holds True in Ukraine Today
Anders Aslund — October 23, 2014
Anders Åslund presents five reasons the European Union needs to develop Marshall Plan for Ukraine now.

North Korea: Witness to Transformation A Sino-Russian Rivalry over North Korea?
Marcus Noland — October 23, 2014
Back to the future, the northern part of the Korean peninsula is beginning to resemble turn-of-the-(20th)-century Korea, with a decaying dynasty and foreign powers vying for influence. Further demonstrating his nostalgia for the Soviet Union, President Vladimir Putin’s revanchist Russi ...

China Economic Watch Why China No Longer Wants Cheap Coal
Ryan Rutkowski — October 21, 2014
In recent months China has enacted a number of policies with the potential to increase coal prices at home and abroad. The government called on provinces to shift away from a sales tax on the volume of coal to one on the ...

Working Paper 14-7 What Goes into a Medal: Women's Inclusion and Success at the Olympic Games [pdf]
Marcus Noland and Kevin Stahler — October 21, 2014
Marcus Noland and Kevin Stahler estimate that at its peak in the 1970s and 1980s, the East German doping program was responsible for 17 percent of the total medals awarded to women, equivalent to the total medal hauls of the US and Soviet women's teams in 1972, the last Summer Olympic Games not marred by widespread doping.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Will Japan Bet the Farm on Agricultural Protectionism?
Kent Troutman — October 21, 2014
Talks over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade accord between the United States, Japan, and 11 other countries are at a standstill—largely because of a hardening of Japan's stance toward agricultural protection. President Obama discussed the stalled negotiations with Prime Ministe ...

China Economic Watch Is China Unwinding its Foreign Exchange Reserves? Not Just Yet
Kent Troutman — October 20, 2014
Last week, the PBoC released data on its third quarter foreign exchange reserve accumulation. The headline data showed a decline of $105 billion, the first decline in headline re ...

China Economic Watch China Chart of the Week: Fishing in the South China Sea
Sarah Oliver — October 17, 2014
While the most recent clashes between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors in the South China Sea have been over ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch To Unleash an Infrastructure Boom, Turn to the Private Sector
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Tyler Moran — October 16, 2014
With the world economy suffering, neither monetary nor fiscal nostrums are giving much relief. Easy money has boosted bond and equity prices, as well as housing values, but it has done little to lift wages or employment. Fiscal expansion is constrained by politics, not economics. Debt and deficit ...

News Release Arvind Subramanian Appointed Chief Economic Advisor to Indian Government
October 16, 2014
WASHINGTON—The Peterson Institute for International Economics is proud to announce ...

News Release Peterson Institute Book Recommends Consideration of China-United States Trade and Investment Agreement
October 16, 2014
WASHINGTON—A new study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics proposes that the United States and China consider the possibility of a far-reaching agreement to lower barriers to trade and investment between them over the lon ...

Article Why We Must Break Up the Financial Herd
Avinash D. Persaud — October 15, 2014
Financial firms can play an important role in restoring growth but only as part of a system that does not accentuate boom and bust.

China Economic Watch Is China's Rebalancing for “Real”?
Ryan Rutkowski — October 14, 2014
For the past three years the rapid growth of China’s service sector has been one of the most positive indicators that internal rebalancing – while slow – is moving in a positive direction. In nominal terms the tertiary industry (i.e. services) exceeded secondary industry (i.e. industry and construct ...

Op-ed A Recovery Driven by Manufacturing? It's Not Happening, George
David G. Blanchflower — October 14, 2014
Evidence that the UK economy is potentially at another downward turning point continues to come in thick and fast.



C. Fred Bergsten

Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United States

Coauthors C. Fred Bergsten, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Sean Miner present the conclusions of their latest book. Myron Brilliant, US Chamber of Commerce, provided comments.

Martin Wolf

The Shift and the Shocks: What We've Learned—and Have Still to Learn—from the Financial Crisis

Martin Wolf presents the conclusions of his new book, followed by commentary by Athanasios Orphanides and Kevin Warsh.

Vitor Gaspar, Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF

The European Union: Challenged and Poised for Change

Vitor Gaspar, IMF, delivers the keynote address at the semiannual Moody's Investor Service-PIIE Sovereign Economic Panel. Marco Buti, European Commission, and Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, Moody's, presented opening and closing remarks, respectively.

Suma Chakrabarti

What the New Multilateralism Means: A Development Bank Leadership Perspective

EBRD President Chakrabarti and African Development Bank President Kaberuka, discuss changes in development and infrastructure banks and their response to the shifting multilateral balance of economics and politics.

H. E. Guangyao Zhu, Vice Minister of Finance, People's Republic of China

The Global Economy and China-US Economic Relations

Vice Minister of Finance Guangyao Zhu speaks at the Peterson Institute.


David J. Stockton discusses the global economic outlook, underperforming economies, evidence of an expanding US economy, and the problems that stand in the way of more growth.


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